The cost of food keeps going up. Most customers cringe when going through the checkout line at their local grocery store these days. Coupons are back in vogue, and many people are comparison shopping between brands and stores to save money.
One problem is that the most standard items like milk, eggs, and bread that have risen in price significantly don’t normally have coupon discounts. One way our family is saving is by going to big wholesale discount centers such as Sam’s to buy these items. Milk at Sam’s is cheaper than any of the local groceries. Until recently we were not focused on using discount centers for food purchased; when I used to think of Sam’s it was for cheap electronics, office supplies, and other stuff. Times have changed – thanks to the rapid inflation in food prices.
On an interesting financial note, regulators are proposing to increase the margins for agricultural products in the commodities markets to curb speculation. This step was recently enacted for energy futures to reduce volatility, apparently it has not worked out very well – Oil jumped $10 today.
One recent article outlined “How to Save $400 a Month on Groceries”. The piece outlines some of the websites and strategies for finding coupons that will help you save in the checkout line.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Is Oil in a speculative bubble?
Oil continues to trend upward with some pull-backs. It is an open question if the increases merely reflect a speculative bubble, or is indicative of real supply and demand.
Take the new survey at the top left of the blog to voice your opinion.
One interesting regulatory change over the past couple of weeks is the tripling of margin requirements at the energy exchanges. The New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) and ICE Futures Europe in London have boosted the margin required by speculators to make trades. The exchanges are hoping that the margin calls will reduce volatility and keep the lid on speculative price increases in the energy markets. On the day the changes were implemented, oil dropped by more than $7. Since this time however, the price has recovered to near $130.
A number of officials such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have stated that high oil prices are here to stay, and are reflective of the world supply and demand situation. Jim Rogers agrees, stating that the oil bull market has years to go.
Other sources state that oil is in a classic bubble. No different than houses, dotcoms or tulips. The article in The Times makes the case that the oil price increases are not attached to reality, and outlines the case with some compelling numbers.
This leaves the question. Is oil in a speculative bubble that will pop before the end of 2008? Or do the price increases have years to go?
One truth is that bubbles always tend to go on longer than any pessimist ever believes it can; and eventually crashes harder than any optimist ever believed was possible.
The last survey – Gas at the Pump
The last survey on the price of gas at the pump showed that 43% of the poll takers expected gasoline to be between $4 and $4.50 per gallon on August 1st. 67% of the responders expected gas to be above $4 per gallon.
Take the new survey at the top left of the blog to voice your opinion.
One interesting regulatory change over the past couple of weeks is the tripling of margin requirements at the energy exchanges. The New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) and ICE Futures Europe in London have boosted the margin required by speculators to make trades. The exchanges are hoping that the margin calls will reduce volatility and keep the lid on speculative price increases in the energy markets. On the day the changes were implemented, oil dropped by more than $7. Since this time however, the price has recovered to near $130.
A number of officials such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have stated that high oil prices are here to stay, and are reflective of the world supply and demand situation. Jim Rogers agrees, stating that the oil bull market has years to go.
Other sources state that oil is in a classic bubble. No different than houses, dotcoms or tulips. The article in The Times makes the case that the oil price increases are not attached to reality, and outlines the case with some compelling numbers.
This leaves the question. Is oil in a speculative bubble that will pop before the end of 2008? Or do the price increases have years to go?
One truth is that bubbles always tend to go on longer than any pessimist ever believes it can; and eventually crashes harder than any optimist ever believed was possible.
The last survey – Gas at the Pump
The last survey on the price of gas at the pump showed that 43% of the poll takers expected gasoline to be between $4 and $4.50 per gallon on August 1st. 67% of the responders expected gas to be above $4 per gallon.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Is Lehman Next?
Lehman Brothers has plunged over the past few days as Wall Street is speculating if it is the next Bear Stearns. The bank has fought these allegations with a string of press releases and appearances stating that it is properly capitalized and reducing debt. (Wait a minute, this sounds familiar – didn’t Bear do the same thing).
A string of major articles outlining Lehman’s woes has not helped the situation. The Wall Street Journal stating that the bank’s “balance-sheet troubles threaten to harm the wider financial system unless the bank takes decisive action”. The paper went on to say the firm will be forced to sell all or parts of itself to stay above water. Naturally this news has LEH stock targeting 52 week lows.
Lehman’s has not taken the press sitting down; it has come out swinging at parties that portray the bank in a negative light. At the top of the list is head fund chief, David Einhorn, who runs a $6 billion hedge fund called Greenlight Capital. (Lehman Battles an Insurgent Investor). He has been a vocal critic of Lehman’s and has profited on their pain by shorting the stock. According to most market watchers, “Mr. Einhorn instigated the latest dive in Lehman’s stock price two weeks ago when he encouraged other investors to short the stock at a large conference in New York”. He followed this up by agitating for a reduction in debt ratings for Lehman Brothers.
The firm is trying to portray Mr. Einhorn as a short-seller who is simply trying to pad is pocket by spreading negative news about Lehmans. Many on Wall Street simply point to the many times he has been correct in the past. In any account, the situation will play itself out over the next few weeks. It is unwise to underestimate the headwinds facing Lehman Brothers, their eroding mortgage portfolio represents a systemic risk not only to themselves but other Wall Street firms. The media is most likely right on target when stating that a merger is needed and the bank is at serious risk.
The question remains of how much LEH will sink below $31 in the next couple of months. Will the firm regain investor confidence or is it doomed for a big fall?
A string of major articles outlining Lehman’s woes has not helped the situation. The Wall Street Journal stating that the bank’s “balance-sheet troubles threaten to harm the wider financial system unless the bank takes decisive action”. The paper went on to say the firm will be forced to sell all or parts of itself to stay above water. Naturally this news has LEH stock targeting 52 week lows.
Lehman’s has not taken the press sitting down; it has come out swinging at parties that portray the bank in a negative light. At the top of the list is head fund chief, David Einhorn, who runs a $6 billion hedge fund called Greenlight Capital. (Lehman Battles an Insurgent Investor). He has been a vocal critic of Lehman’s and has profited on their pain by shorting the stock. According to most market watchers, “Mr. Einhorn instigated the latest dive in Lehman’s stock price two weeks ago when he encouraged other investors to short the stock at a large conference in New York”. He followed this up by agitating for a reduction in debt ratings for Lehman Brothers.
The firm is trying to portray Mr. Einhorn as a short-seller who is simply trying to pad is pocket by spreading negative news about Lehmans. Many on Wall Street simply point to the many times he has been correct in the past. In any account, the situation will play itself out over the next few weeks. It is unwise to underestimate the headwinds facing Lehman Brothers, their eroding mortgage portfolio represents a systemic risk not only to themselves but other Wall Street firms. The media is most likely right on target when stating that a merger is needed and the bank is at serious risk.
The question remains of how much LEH will sink below $31 in the next couple of months. Will the firm regain investor confidence or is it doomed for a big fall?
Wall Street’s Graveyard
Bear Stearns was not the first firm to implode and float belly up on Wall Street. Portfolio.com takes us through the colorful history of other firms that have gone kaput since 1970.
Greed and lack of risk control is not a new story. However the danger in the modern era is that many of the firms are built on a mountain of derivatives and the collapse of one can lead to a cascading failure of others. Increased regulation of the derivatives market is needed to prevent this type of event.
Greed and lack of risk control is not a new story. However the danger in the modern era is that many of the firms are built on a mountain of derivatives and the collapse of one can lead to a cascading failure of others. Increased regulation of the derivatives market is needed to prevent this type of event.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Is Quantitative Trading alive or dead?
Scores of quantitative hedge funds have taken hits over past year that make NFL hits in Sunday football games appear to be minor league. Many have questioned if there is a future to the quantitative approach to trading the market, all the current models appear to be completely discredited. Yet to entire industry continues to drive forward, new algorithms are being created, however most are still focused on wringing raw profit out of the market based on differences in data input.
Similar to the movie Groundhog Day, repeating the same mistakes will only lead to a cycle of the same results. The continuing flawed premise is the over-optimization of models to focus on profit while ignoring risk.
A recent study by the CFA Institute outlines many of the issues with quantitative models used by Hedge Funds. Many factors have led to a complete decay in performance, leaving funds scrambling to unwind exposed positions. The information reveals that profits opportunities for quants are harder to find and exploit, while the updated strategies expose firms to increasing risk. The concept that firms will trade strategies that increase risk while possible gains are minimized bodes poorly for the industry.
A couple of HingeFire briefs have touched on this subject in the past (see Is there a future for Quant Funds and Quants search for new math). The complete 100+ page study from the CFA Institute is available for free in PDF format and is very educational. It can be downloaded here - http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2470/rf.v2008.n2
Similar to the movie Groundhog Day, repeating the same mistakes will only lead to a cycle of the same results. The continuing flawed premise is the over-optimization of models to focus on profit while ignoring risk.
A recent study by the CFA Institute outlines many of the issues with quantitative models used by Hedge Funds. Many factors have led to a complete decay in performance, leaving funds scrambling to unwind exposed positions. The information reveals that profits opportunities for quants are harder to find and exploit, while the updated strategies expose firms to increasing risk. The concept that firms will trade strategies that increase risk while possible gains are minimized bodes poorly for the industry.
A couple of HingeFire briefs have touched on this subject in the past (see Is there a future for Quant Funds and Quants search for new math). The complete 100+ page study from the CFA Institute is available for free in PDF format and is very educational. It can be downloaded here - http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2470/rf.v2008.n2
Wachovia CEO given the Boot
The dirty laundry list appears to be almost endless, aiding telemarketers to steal money from account holders, money laundering investigations, selling customer lists, and a host of other activities that have Wachovia in trouble with regulators. Now all the problems have caught up with America’s most ethically challenged bank, CEO Ken Thompson of Wachovia has been shoved out the door.
Certainly the very poor acquisitions of mortgage companies such as Golden West also played into the decision. The resulting financial fallout has left Wachovia in state where it may need to further cut dividends and re-structuring.
"No single precipitating event caused the board to reach this decision, but a series of previously disclosed disappointments and setbacks cumulatively have negatively impacted the company and its performance," Smith said. It would be better to hear commentary on how Wachovia will in the future stay out of trouble with regulators and customers.
An earlier Hingefire article asked when the CEO would walk the plank (see Wachovia: Take Three Steps), now the board has taken steps to right the ship. The question remains if the directors can find a CEO candidate that has the moral backbone to place the bank back on course.
Certainly the very poor acquisitions of mortgage companies such as Golden West also played into the decision. The resulting financial fallout has left Wachovia in state where it may need to further cut dividends and re-structuring.
"No single precipitating event caused the board to reach this decision, but a series of previously disclosed disappointments and setbacks cumulatively have negatively impacted the company and its performance," Smith said. It would be better to hear commentary on how Wachovia will in the future stay out of trouble with regulators and customers.
An earlier Hingefire article asked when the CEO would walk the plank (see Wachovia: Take Three Steps), now the board has taken steps to right the ship. The question remains if the directors can find a CEO candidate that has the moral backbone to place the bank back on course.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)