Showing posts with label 401K. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 401K. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Pouring Ice on FIRE

Over the past couple years there has been endless promotion of FIRE (Financial Independence, Retiring Early).  Many of the advocates outline how saving hard while minimizing expenses will allow you to retire early - often while you are only in your 30s. YouTube videos and media provide all the basic math showing stock market investments over a decade followed by a 4% withdrawal rate.

There are many positive concepts promoted by the FIRE movement including notions of minimizing debt, not buying new cars, investing in 401Ks and being frugal.  Some of these are generic ideas which make common sense for every generation.  Many of these concepts are covered in my "So You Want To Be a Millionaire" article from 2008 -- well before the FIRE movement appeared.

The primary short-coming of FIRE is that it does not consider all the possible events and complex (and likely) future scenarios.  In other words it is a simple "answer" for a "complex" problem.

Most FIRE promotional material do not account for the following:
  • Medical Insurance costs when no longer covered by your employer.
  • Medical Costs for serious illness (even when you have insurance it can be expensive)
  • Losing a partner (divorce or death)
  • Having Children (cost over $300,000 to raise each)
  • Marriage (many FIRE proposals assume you will forever be single)
  • Location issues (not being happy about where you moved for a low-cost lifestyle)
  • Social Security - not getting significant payments due to not working 35 years
There has been a slew of recent articles that covered some of the FIRE drawbacks (and benefits) including the question of what to do after "retiring". A few articles are provided below:


The real problem with FIRE is that it does not take into account all the possible future scenarios.  What happens if inflation greatly increases? (Most millennials have never experienced this). What is the consumer index on many core consumer  items goes up greatly?  What happens if the stock market greatly under-performs? 

Most FIRE articles assume that the stock market will continue to perform well over a decade period before you start withdrawing money.  What happens if the market sinks for a decade?  The primary failure of FIRE is that it does not plan for low, medium, and high scenarios in regards to market returns and inflation.  Most FIRE planning scenarios are too simplistic; at minimum you should create a spreadsheet with assumptions about market returns, savings rate, inflation, and your expenses.  This spreadsheet should be easily alterable so that you can plan a low, medium, and high scenario for review.  Plan across all possible scenarios.

Most FIRE scenarios assume a fixed 4% withdrawal rate.  Withdrawal rates are a complex problem without a single fixed answer.  Individuals must take a look at withdrawals in more detail.  One good source of information is - The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 19: Equity Glidepaths in Retirement

One other item to note is that many FIRE plans promote saving with 401Ks and IRAs.  Using 401Ks is important to get an employer match (effectively free money). The one detail that FIRE articles fail to usually mention is that while 401Ks / IRAs are tax-protected -- there are significant penalties for early withdrawal. Usually you will not be able to withdraw this money (without penalties) until long after you retired early.

While I agree with many of the investing and savings concepts driving the FIRE movement, there is a need to pour some ICE on FIRE due to the lack of effective scenario planning and the failure to account for common life events.


Thursday, December 19, 2019

The 401K Diversification Article You MUST Read Today

My earlier Portfolio Diversification – 401K article provides an in-depth example of designing a diversified portfolio. I would urge everyone to read this previous comprehensive article today. It covers:
  • MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory)
  • Typical funds in corporate 401K plans
  • Hard truths about size
  • Active funds vrs. index funds
  • Fund selection
  • Risk Tolerance
  • Portfolios by Age and Risk Tolerance
  • Re-balancing
  • 401k and Diversification Resources

How has my 401K performed?

It has been over a decade since the 401K Portfolio Diversification post; in this time I have regularly re-balanced the 401k account and adjusted it as my age increased.   My 401K has performed in-line with the the market indexes and expectations. In areas where active funds were used rather than index funds; actively-managed Small Cap Funds (SSMVX and successors) have out performed the indexes. Actively-managed Bond Funds and Foreign Stock funds generally have under-performed their indexes.  The under-performance of Bond funds was impacted by the low interest rate environment.

I stuck with my 401K portfolio and am generally pleased with the results over time.

Friday, December 13, 2019

How to get Rich in the Stock Market

There has been all sorts of media, companies and individuals pushing methods of "getting rich in the stock market".  The proposed strategies range from stock picking to trading, all the way out to using esoteric long/short hedging strategies with options & futures.

The reality is that there is only one guaranteed method to get rich in the stock market. It involves time, diversification, low-cost funds, continuous investment, and patience.

1) Time
The first factor is time; you will need to be focused on the long term.  Success in the stock market is not based on the next quarter or year, but the expectation for results over long periods of time akin to decades.

2) Diversification
It is important to be properly diversified based on your investment objectives, accepted risk tolerance, and time frames.  You should be diversified across domestic stocks, international stocks, growth/income, and company size.  The is also need for a balance between stocks, bonds, and other investments based on your age and objectives. There are many articles available that discuss proper diversification including - Why Diversification Is Important in Investing.

My earlier thoughts on 401K diversification can be found here - https://www.gregboop.com/2007/02/portfolio-diversification-401k.html

3) Low-cost Funds
Investment costs such as mutual fund fees can eat into a good portion of your returns over time.  Funds with high fees don't offer better returns over time than index funds -- in fact many times their returns are worse than index funds.  It is best to find mutual funds that mirror indexes offered from funds families such an Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab. Mutual Fund marketing fees, front end load fees, back end load fee and other assorted fees merely make financial people rich -- they don't help you are all. 

4) Continuous Investment
The market goes through many cycles.  By investing regularly - for example adding money each paycheck to a 401K or IRA - you are riding the cycle.  When the market pulls back you are buying more at lower cost; when the market rises you are making solid returns on what you have purchased over time.   Continuous investment provides a safety cushion for market cycles; it is a much better strategy than simply purchasing funds at one point in time.   If you buy at the peak with all of your cash it is a harder climb to get solid investment returns.

5) Patience
Be willing to hold on an ride out market cycles.  Do not panic when the market goes down.  Do not take a lot of money out simply because the market is up (trying to time the market).  You need to have a long term view and be patient.  Getting "rich" in the stock market is a long term "play" not something that happens by next year.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

401K: Focus on Fees

Subtransfer agent fees, early redemption fees, custodial fees, wrap fees, investment adviser fees, 12b-1 fees, brokerage commissions, administrative fees, revenue sharing fees and fees for services… The list is so convoluted and endless, the mutual fund firms can’t even create diagrams depicting the fees that can be readily understood. If the industry itself can not even determine how they are fleecing the plan participants then how are the corporate sponsors and employees ever expected to figure it out.

Fortunately the Department of Labor is stepping up to the table with demands that the fees are properly disclosed on the ERISA-required form that every plan must file annually with the federal government. The changes are expected to be put in place in January 2009.

Hopefully these changes will help end the 401K plan practice of finding every possible angle to stick it to investors. A recent HingeFire post (see What is the cost to beat the market?) outlined how mutual funds have found new inventive ways to pick the pockets of mutual fund investors. Fees can make a significant difference in the amount of funds available for an employees’ retirement and it is critical that 401K plans are more transparent with all the expenses charged to plan participants.

Bankrate asks “Why's Your 401(k) Plan Heading South?-- the answer is Fees.

Monday, January 28, 2008

So You Want To Be a Millionaire

Many times I am approached by people who have recently graduated from college who want to know how they can become a millionaire. Many chatter about some far-fetched scheme to strike it rich by the time they are thirty and retire to some lush tropical paradise.

The stark reality for many of these recent graduates is glummer; there is no ‘easy money’. Very few of these individuals will become executive VPs by age 25 or agents for Hollywood movie stars. Most college graduates will labor in companies in professional positions starting in the $40K to $60K range, and can only look forward to 40 more years of being a cube rat in their selected career path.

The good news; you can still easily become a millionaire while laboring in a standard job in corporate America. It simply requires some financial common sense. Most of the millionaires in America are not famous superstars but the older person laboring away in the cube just down the hallway.

The majority of millionaires in America achieved this goal by simply sticking to a few basic financial rules after they graduated.

Scratch the fancy car when you graduate

One of the most critical mistakes that many graduates make is rushing out to purchase a fancy $30K plus car immediately after they graduate. This normally sticks the new graduate with a $600 per month or greater car payment. Sure the car may look hot outside the bar on a Friday night, however you probably have wreaked havoc on your financial future the day you signed the lien papers. Purchasing an expensive car with a sizable loan or lease payment greatly reduces the income available that can be saved; while sticking the owner in an asset that drops in value each month.

When you graduate from college you should focus on purchasing a good used car or low-cost new car. The key is to keep the size of your loan and monthly payment to a minimum. The loan is useful from the perspective of building a credit history, but you don’t want the payments to gobble up the majority of your monthly take home.

If you are able to keep using a car that faithfully took you through your college years while enduring all the tailgating, then you should strongly consider of sticking with this fine automobile. Not only for the enduring memories it carries, but because it makes financial sense. As long as you are not spending a huge amount on repairs each month to keep the old jalopy running, then sticking with the old car after college many times is an excellent decision for you financial future.

Fully fund your 401K

At minimum always fund your 401K plan to get the full company match. The company match is free money. It is better to fund it up to the 401K limit ($15,500 in 2007), but understandably this is not possible for many graduates. However they should always attempt to save at least 10% of their salary in their corporate 401K plan. Going beyond 10% is a great bonus.

It is important that you probably diversify your 401K investments within the funds offered by the corporate plan to align with your age and risk tolerance. An earlier article discusses proper 401K diversification in detail.

Portfolio Diversification – 401K
http://hingefire.blogspot.com/2007/02/portfolio-diversification-401k.html

Save 10% more

Outside of your 401K; you should put away an additional 10% of your monthly salary. It is best to place this money in an IRA if appropriate for long term tax-free savings, or put it in a taxable fund destined for the down payment on your first house. Have an investment plan based on the long-term and short-term objectives. Do not put the money into risky investments, but focus on a diversified portfolio that aligns with your time frame. For example, if you are considering the purchase of a house shortly then if makes sense to leave the down payment in an interest-bearing cash account.

It is important that you also drive to create a rainy day emergency fund. Over time you should drive to put six months of pay in this “rainy day” account. It can be used in crisis situations such as medical bills, auto collision repairs, and to cover expenses in case of job loss. Remember that you live in the age of corporate re-structuring; it is very likely that you will experience being dumped on the street with less then one month’s severance pay before you are thirty years old. Since 1999, over 70% of professional Americans under the age of 30 have been “re-structured” according to one survey.

Buy a home

If you plan to stay in a particular geographic area and want to settle down there, then you should work towards purchasing a house, townhouse, or condo. You should only purchase a home if you qualify for the loan under traditional lending standards with a 30 year fixed rate loan. Do not over-stretch yourself with interest-only and other exotic home loans. We are currently watching the foreclosure drama in America of what happens to a million plus households who over-extended themselves with adjustable rate loans. If you can not afford a home with a traditional loan then you must continue saving or find a place that is more affordable.

Homeownership provides some good tax breaks and allows you to build equity over time, even with all the cycles the housing market experiences. Money spent on rent is basically lost and does not build your financial future – a home you own acts as a leveraged asset that allows you to build equity over time.

The following calculator demonstrates the long-term financial advantages of owning over renting.

Should I Rent or Buy A Home?
http://finance.yahoo.com/calculator/family-home/hom-06

Don’t purchase all that junk brand new

So now that you have a nice house or apartment, there is no need to run out and purchase every single item imaginable at the local stores to fill every corner. Why buy that dining room set for $5000 brand new on store credit when the people with the garage sale next door are selling a better quality used set for a mere $300? You should be willing to purchase items used or online in order to get great discounts off of the retail prices in local stores, or wait until desired items go on sale.

In our consumer driven nation, the money that you will save over time by buying products at a discount adds up quickly towards your bottom line. Always take the smart path in regards to purchasing stuff. First ask yourself if your really need it. If yes, then use common sense in obtaining major items and don’t buy on impulse in the store. Usually you will land up with just as nice stuff in your home as the guy next door who purchased everything at a premium, but unlike the neighbor you won’t be burdened with $50K in credit card debt.

No credit card debt - EVER!

Don’t ever run up debt on credit cards that you can not pay off at the end of the month. Repeat over and over again until this becomes mantra. There is not reason to ever run up a credit card bill with frivolous purchases that you can not pay off at the end of the month. If you can not afford it then don’t buy it. This applies to luxury items, electronics, exotic vacations, and all other purchases. Once again, if you can not afford it then don’t buy it.

This general rule of debt not only applies to credit card debt but all other similar debt such as personal loans, unsecured loans, boat loans, car loans, and unaffordable store credit situations. From a general fiscal perspective, the only things that you should take out loans for are home mortgages and money for starting a business. These are items that hopefully appreciate over time.

The sole possible exception to this hard rule should be medical emergency bills. However you should always try to work out a payment plan with a hospital or medical office rather then putting these charges on your credit card.

Pay off student loans

After you graduate if is probably too late to provide advice about obtaining the most affordable student loans, and as many grants and scholarships as possible. It is preferable to walk out of college with little to no debt; however this is not realistic for many students.

What can a graduate do about that mound of college debt that they have to start making payments on? One is to consider consolidating multiple student loans within six months of graduating in order to minimize your monthly payment. There are multiple resources on the web that discuss this. One good resource is the U.S. Department of Education which provides some good information about paying student loans.
http://www.ed.gov/students/college/repay/edpicks.jhtml?src=ln

Many students walk out of college with sizable debt. Students should take steps if possible to reduce interest rates on the debt and minimize their monthly payment. I would also urge graduates to consider accelerating the repayment of their student loan debt, especially high interest rate loans, if this is possible within their monthly budget.

Avoid car loans

It is usually difficult to get your first car out of college without a loan. However after your first car you should never take out a loan for an automobile. Cars are depreciating assets, they lose value the minute your drive off the dealership parking lot. It usually makes more sense to purchase good used cars with cash then buying brand new cars with lofty premiums.

My family drives Mercedes. Why did I select these high end expensive cars – it does not sound very frugal? The immediate answer is because they are safe, as a recent accident which totaled one of the cars demonstrated. The good news - everyone walked out of the car without any serious injuries. Many of my neighbors think these cars in our driveway are new because they are kept in great shape. None were purchased new and I drove my last diesel till it had over 220K miles then sold it to our neighbor for his son to use. The key point here is that you can enjoy all the benefits of luxury cars without going into debt paying for them, if you simply apply some basic financial common sense.

Use common sense in your lifestyle – the 80% rule

Use only 80% of your take home pay and save the rest! Most people can cover their housing and food expenses while still enjoying a lifestyle that includes dining, clubbing, and vacations while saving 20% of their pay. Live within your means. Don’t make huge frivolous purchases; that new 62 inch plasma TV may look neat but it sure is going to cause a hit to the budget before the Super Bowl party.

Effectively “living below your means” will allow you to put aside money for investing that will fuel your long term financial success. The good news is that it is not necessary to live like a miser and worry about every penny in order to do this. When I first got out of school and was socking away twenty percent of my cash, I was not overly concerned what my tab at the bar was over the weekend, it came out of the ‘80%’ dedicated to monthly living expenses.

This concept of saving 20% of your take home pay aligns with the idea of saving 10% of gross pay beyond your corporate 401K contribution when taxes are taken into consideration. However, the key concept to take-away is that for long term financial success you should live at 80% or below of your monthly take-home pay, and avoid large frivolous purchases.

Don’t ever use HELOC or other home loans as an ATM machine

We have recently watched a good number of homeowners in America using their homes as ATM machines while housing prices have risen quickly over the past few years. They used the increasing equity in their homes to purchases cars, boats, planes, and other costly luxury items. Now that home prices are dropping and the lending spigot has been cut off, the birds are coming home to roost. Many of these homeowners are stuck with loans that are worth more then the values of their houses, and are under stress to make the payments.

Homeowners should only use cash from HELOCs and other home loans to improve your house. This was the original intent of these types of loans. The concept was to build additions or re-modeling to your home that would add value, thereby maintaining your overall equity in your home.

For first time home buyers, HELOC and similar loans make common sense when they are used for the correct purposes.

Choose a partner with your values

Thinking of getting married? Some quick advice --- Be sure that your significant other is aligned with your values regarding money. I would urge couples to fully talk about finances before they tie the knot and define a plan of how to handle everything.

A good portion of the divorces in America are due to arguments over money. The average middle-class divorce now costs $187,000 when all factors are taken into consideration. This type of financial hit is nearly impossible to recover from when you are saving towards a long term objective.

Do these Principles work?

On a personal note, I can attest that following the principles listed above will enable people reach their goal of having a large net worth. Many of the concepts are not only applicable to those who just recently graduated from school but for people of any age. I am 43 and our family has a high net worth. Most of the money is in 401K plans, housing equity, and college money reserved for the kids. All saved while being a single-income family for the past 17 years. My wife had the really difficult job of focusing full time on our children and I would like to thank her for that very publicly; she has done a tremendous job! I got to escape to a cube each day doing software development.

I don’t feel ‘rich’ in the traditional monetary sense. I have three kids to put through college soon and am currently involved in founding a start-up with no revenue yet. Our family drives used cars, only has mortgage debt, and uses common sense in our spending. It is not as if we are misers, our family still enjoys nice cruises as vacations and goes on road trips around our region. Most people would not look at our family and think ‘they are rich’; I don’t have a leased $80,000 sports car in my driveway, nor can I brag about all the things I purchased with $120,000 worth of credit card debt. I expect most of the millionaires in America are like us; not ostentatious, but somewhat frugal and hard-working while living in middle-class neighborhoods.

I am probably more worried about money now then earlier in my life. I don’t really feel “wealthy” or financially comfortable despite being considered high net worth. My financial situation seems like a ‘bigger problem’ now then when I was only 22. This is because I currently have the responsibility of providing for an entire family and in those early post-college days I was more concerned about which night club to go to on Saturday.

While the concept of becoming a millionaire slowly over time may not sound immediately exciting; it is the sure path to achieving this goal. The further good news is that is does not require tremendous personal sacrifice or the scaling back of your entire life to reach this objective – just follow the guidelines listed above and in time you will join the many households with over a million dollars in net worth.

What is “Rich”

It is important not to have stress over monetary issues spill over into relationships and your perspectives on life. In many ways, being ‘rich’ is not about how much money you have in the bank, but being involved with your community, family, and friends.

One of the things I have always promoted is "Giving back to the Community". In many ways this is one of the cornerstones of our family philosophy. Our family is active in local schools, non-profit boards, and other volunteer activities. Whether you are helping in a school, coaching a youth team, building a home with Habitat, running to raise money for the Food Bank, or any other activity; I would urge everyone to get out and get involved. It does not matter what age you are. Many of the best volunteers in our local youth sports, education initiatives, and athletic events for charity are recent college graduates!

Some of my most personally rewarding experiences occurred when I was involved in volunteer efforts. These are the days I look back at and say "Wow, that was great. I made a difference."

Invest in your community - many times it will bring more meaningful returns then your portfolio. Common sense in spending starting right out of college can make you a millionaire, being ‘rich’ however involves much more then money.


References

More U.S. millionaires are middle-class
http://uk.reuters.com/article/outsourcingNews/idUKN2636659120071101?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Stop Trading – Think Long Term

Over the past days, I have received numerous emails that all start the same way “Help! My 401K is down 10% in ONE month…” Usually the investor then asks if they should go to nearly all cash to stop the red ink?

The market is certainly in turmoil and I can understand the concerns of investors. However it is important for investors to think LONG TERM, and not trade the market with their retirement funds.

The critical point is the need to have a properly diversified portfolio to ride out the market’s valleys and peaks over time. One excellent summary about 401K diversification can be found here.

A number of investors have stashed a large bulk of their retirement funds in overseas funds because these stocks have outperformed the market over the past couple of years.

Unfortunately their decisions to not properly diversify may be coming home to roost shortly. Traditionally international stocks tend to have large swings; while also facing currency exchange risks and other issues. It is important for these investors to properly re-balance their portfolios to align with their age and risk tolerance.

While the 300+ point roller coaster each day is exciting… and stomach churning, it is no justification to alter a properly diversified retirement portfolio. There is no need to suddenly switch everything to cash or bonds Think long term with your 401K !

Friday, November 9, 2007

Lifecycle that makes sense

Many savvy financial experts are hesitant to recommend lifecycle or target-date funds because many are just a pyramid of fees; burdening the investor with the expenses of both the underlying funds and additional fees for the management of the life-cycle fund. These funds come across to many as just another way for fund families to increase their revenue. Coupled with the reality that very few of these funds outperform their associated indexes, most investors would be better off managing their own diversification.

The crux of the problem is the expenses; automatic lifecycle as a concept works if the fees can be reduced. Fortunately there are a number of ETFs now offered that provide expenses that are typical less then half of most life cycle funds in the market. Target date funds are popular conceptual with investors simply because you can “set & forget”; the advent of life-cycle ETFs are likely to enhance their broad acceptance with the probable added benefit of driving many large mutual fund families to reduce their fees for these vehicles.

TD Ameritrade and XShares have launched five new target-date ETFs; TDAX Independence 2010 ETF (TDD), TDAX Independence 2020 ETF (TDH), TDAX Independence 2030 ETF (TDN) and TDAX Independence 2040 ETF (TDV) and TDAX In-Target ETF (TDX). These target-date ETFs have expense ratios of 0.65%, compared with about 1.3% for the average comparable mutual fund, Other ETF underwriters plan to offer other lifecycle choices shortly, many of these will have even lower expense ratios.

The recent round of pension reform, in which QDIAs were defined by the U.S. Department of Labor, will place lifecycle offerings as the default investments in numerous 401K plans. Many of these retirement plans will likely start considering the ETF lifecycle products as employees clamor for lower fees.

New ETFs Target Retirement Market
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/103739/New-ETFs-Target-Retirement-Market?mod=retirement-401k

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

What is a QDIA? and why should I care?

QDIA stands for ‘qualified default investment alternative”. The recent determination of what investments qualify as QDIAs opens the door for automatic enrollment of many Americans into their corporate 401K plans. Nearly 20% of workers do not enroll in their corporate plans, many times missing out on company matching and the ability to accumulate funds for retirement.

Under the Pension Protection Act of 2006, employers can now automatically enroll their employees in the company’s 401(k) plan. However firms have been waiting on the ruling by the U.S. Department of Labor regarding what meets the requirement to be QDIAs before moving forward.

Employers can now direct the funds of automatically enrolled employees to balanced mutual funds, lifecycle / target-date funds, and managed accounts. Stable value funds and guaranteed insurance contracts (GICs) no longer meet the criteria to serve as QDIAs in 401K plans. Most financial planners view this change in a positive light; balanced and lifecycle funds are far more appropriate for 401K retirement plans then fixed rate investments focused on capital preservation.

Qualified Approval
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/103820/Qualified-Approval?mod=retirement-401k

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The Downside of taking 401K Loans

In the past, I have urged people not to take loans from their 401K plan. Raiding your 401K should be your avenue of last resort. Unfortunately an increasing number of people in the U.S. are taking loans from their corporate 401K plans. The following article outlines some of the significant negatives associated with this activity.

Cash-strapped Americans raiding their 401(k)s
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-ym-borrowing-1014oct14,0,5181066.story

Monday, April 30, 2007

What’s coming up !

I would like to thank folks for their feedback asking when some more posts are coming. I have been buried under between soccer and delivering programs at work recently. However there is some good information coming soon! Here is a list of some of the posts I am in middle of putting together:

1) Investing for Global Warning
Global warming has been a topic that is increasingly in media reports recently. There is significant debate if man-kind generated global warming exists and what it’s impact will be. One of the truths however is that politicalization of “global warming” will drive government mandates that require investment. Which sectors and companies will be hot in the coming years as the business sector contends with this situation. Should you be investing in alternative energy companies, water firms, uranium firms, or power-related semi-conductor tech firms?

2) Portfolio Design for your 401K – Part 2
What are all the questions and details of designing a portfolio. Why does modern portfolio design lead to more questions then answers. Delve into the depths of the problems an investor will encounter when attempting to look at the details of creating the optimum fund mix.

3) Real Estate Update
The summer selling season is almost here. Will poor sales this summer finally break the back of the real estate market in most localities and result in a climate with more “fear”? What are the possible outcomes? Does risk exist beyond the subprime and Alt-A meltdown?

4) Screening for Winning Stocks
At times investors seem to be divided into two camps; fundamental and technical. An approach to selecting stocks involving both fundamental information and technical indicators appears to get the best results for investors. Most investors should have both methods in your arsenal. Does it not make sense to use all the tools at your disposal to get as large as an edge on the market as possible? This summary will discuss some of the criteria, both fundamental and technical, which I use when screening for stocks.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Today's Bounce Back - 401K

In these volatile market times, let’s take a look at how a diversified 401K portfolio performed today compared to a single investment in a foreign stock fund. The overall market rebounded slightly today from yesterday’s losses (DOW up 0.43%, NASDAQ up 0.34%, and S&P up 0.56%).

As cited in yesterday’s post, if a 401K investor placed all of their funds into a single sector then they would have taken a significant hit. Today an investor in strictly foreign funds such as FIGRX would be up 0.21% after taking a 4.27% loss yesterday. The owner of the moderate 401K portfolio outlined in my earlier post would be up 0.22% today and took a much less significant loss yesterday

FIGRX up 0.21% (10% of portfolio)
FUSVX up 0.60% (25% of portfolio)
PEXMX up 0.36% (20% of portfolio)
SSMVX up 0.44% (10% of portfolio)
FBNDX down 0.27% (25% of portfolio)
FMPXX up 0.014% (10% of portfolio)

Due to having a properly diversified portfolio, the 401K investor not only took a much smaller loss yesterday, but achieved a gain greater then the single foreign fund portfolio today. Despite all the volatility, this investor with a properly allocated portfolio outperformed over a two day period in a very tough market environment. The same principles hold true for the long term outlook for the 401K account, this investor will achieve solid returns while reducing risk.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

The Market Today

The market losses today may be traumatic for many investors (DOW down 3.29%, S&P down 3.47%, NASDAQ down 3.86%).

However they can be used to demonstrate the importance of proper diversification. The 401K investor who placed all of their funds in to a foreign stock fund such as (FIGRX down 4.27%) is looking pretty glum this evening. The losses are even more dramatic for investors who placed all of their funds into emerging stock markets such as China (FXI down 9.87%) or Latin America (ILF down 8.39%).

However if a 41 year old investor followed the diversification strategy outlined in the earlier 401K article from February 6th then they are considerably more chipper tonight (but not quite reaching for the champagne). Using the moderate allocation strategy, this investor would only have incurred a loss of 2.21% in their portfolio today. Most of the indexes were down considerably more then this.

The investor’s portfolio using a moderate allocation consists of the following funds which performed as follows:

FIGRX down 4.27% (10% of portfolio)
FUSVX down 3.48% (25% of portfolio)
PEXMX down 3.34% (20% of portfolio)
SSMVX down 3.52% (10% of portfolio)
FBNDX up 0.41% (25% of portfolio)
FMPXX up 0.014% (10% of portfolio).

By using a proper allocation strategic they endured a single day loss that was significantly less then most indexes suffered in the market today. Over a long period of time, this investor will have risk adjusted returns that outperform the overall market from a portfolio return/beta perspective.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Portfolio Diversification – 401K

Before kicking off, let me state that I am not a qualified investment advisor. The summaries provided in this blog should not be construed as official investment advice but simply as my thoughts. You should see a qualified “fee-only” investment advisor if you need direct advice about your individual financial situation for retirement.

This being said…..



Portfolio Diversification – 401K Overview

Most companies in the U.S. offer 401K plans to their employees. Nearly all of these plans are administered by large mutual fund plans such as Fidelity Investments. Generally the employee’s 401K plan offers a few basic mutual funds that cover several sectors and investment styles.

What is the most important thing an employee should keep in mind when selecting funds for their 401K? ---- Diversification. For long term success, it is critical that an employee properly diversify within the context of the mutual funds offered in the plan. The selection of funds must keep in mind the risk tolerance and age of the participant, but also focus on to reducing the portfolio risk while maximizing returns.

A diversified portfolio does not concentrate on merely one or two investment categories. Instead it includes an array of funds covering all the basic sectors, some of these sector returns will excel while the returns of other investments lag. Each year the particular funds that shine may rotate in the plan; a mutual fund that provides the strongest returns this year may be the laggard the following year. A properly diversified selection of funds will ensure lower volatility in your overall retirement returns.

Modern Portfolio Theory - MPT

Modern Portfolio Theory “defines investments in terms of their their expected long-term return rate and their expected short-term volatility. The volatility is equated with "risk", measuring how much worse than average an investment's bad years are likely to be. The goal is to identify your acceptable level of risk tolerance, and then to find a portfolio with the maximum expected return for that level of risk.”

MPT focuses on the standard deviation of returns over time of particular investments. The portfolio theory defines a statistical portfolio including multiple minimally correlated components to focus on providing the most efficient overall returns for the risk taken. Utilizing concepts such as covariance, a portfolio is defined using a combination of low risk and high risk investments which over time should smooth out fluctuations in value while achieving superior returns.

One good article on Modern Portfolio Theory can be found at:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/risk/riskintro.htm

The commentary below is going to provide an overview of how to design a diversified 401K investment plan using standard corporately-offered mutual funds within the guidelines of modern portfolio theory.

Corporate 401K Plans

Most 401K plans offer a core set of funds that allow the employee to implement basic investment diversification but not broad diversification. Usually the primary fund offerings with proper allocation should meet the needs of many employees for retirement. Any 401K investment should be diversified in mutual funds across six basic sectors:
- Large Cap – U.S. stocks with market capitalization above $10B
- Mid Cap – U.S. stocks with market capitalization between $2B and $10B
- Small Cap - U.S. stocks with market capitalization below $2B
- Foreign Stocks – stocks in markets outside the U.S.
- Bonds – Corporate bonds generally issued by U.S firms
- Cash – Money Market account

An employee at a company offering a 401K plan from Fidelity is likely to have a small set of standard investment options similar to the list of funds outlined below:

Stocks:
BGI Extended Market Index – matches Wilshire 4500 Completion Index
Fidelity Growth & Income Portfolio (FGRIX) – actively-managed large growth fund
Fidelity International Discovery Fund (FIGRX) – actively-managed foreign large blend fund
Fidelity OTC Portfolio (FOCPX) – actively-managed large growth fund
Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOXFX) - actively-managed foreign large blend fund
Harbor International Instl CL (HAINX) - actively-managed foreign large value fund
MSI LGCP Rel Val A (MSIVX) – actively managed large value fund
Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSVX) – matches S&P 500 Index
US Equity Market Index – matches Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
Wells Fargo Small Cap Value CL Z (SSMVX) – actively-managed small growth fund
Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX) – actively-managed large growth fund

Blended Fund Investments:
Fidelity Freedom 2000 Fund (FFFBX) – actively managed blend fund
Fidelity Freedom 2010 Fund (FFFCX) – actively managed blend fund
Fidelity Freedom 2020 Fund (FFFDX) – actively managed blend fund
Fidelity Freedom 2030 Fund (FFFEX) – actively managed blend fund
Fidelity Freedom 2040 Fund (FFFFX) – actively managed blend fund
Fidelity Freedom Income (FFFAX) – actively managed income fund
Fidelity Puritan Fund (FPURX) – actively managed blend fund

Bonds:
Fidelity Investment Grade Bond Fund (FBNDX) – actively-managed bond fund
BGI U.S. Debt Index Fund – matches Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index

Money Market:
Fidelity Institutional Money Market (FMPXX) – money market fund


The Curse of Size and Some Hard Truths

Before taking a closer look at 401K portfolio diversification, there are some hard truths about the funds offered in most retirement plans. Index funds for large and mid cap stocks tend to outperform actively-managed funds. Most actively-managed large and mid cap funds offered in 401K plans tend to have a large amount of assets and are institutional performance “has-beens” that do not offer much upside. The most common funds placed by institutions into corporate 401K plans are the largest in asset size and generally ranked in the bottom of performance. In the case of Fidelity, there have been multiple articles over the past years demonstrating this. It is always preferable to invest in mutual funds with a moderate asset size; funds with huge amounts of assets have difficulty in remaining flexible enough to deliver strong returns. Remember size does matter when it comes to the assets of mutual funds, and smaller is generally better.

Fidelity Magellan is a prime illustration of the curse of size and a victim of its own earlier success. Mutual funds that contain a colossal amount of assets find it difficult to effectively maneuver in the market to deliver returns. For example, when the fund wants to invest 2% of its assets in a particular stock, the amount of money represented by the 45 billion Magellan is enormous. Even a mere 2% of the fund is represents a monetary amount greater then the openly available shares of many stocks listed on U.S. exchanges. This means that there is only a limited list of stocks that Fidelity Magellan can effectively purchase; most are very large capitalized stocks that offer only limited growth potential.

The other issue that a fund the size of Magellan must contend with is that every significant purchase or sale of stock moves the market. When the fund wants to purchase a stock, it usually takes several weeks of work to acquire the shares, and its own purchases drive up the price of the targeted stock. In effect the fund sabotages its own efforts causing it to miss the targeted entry price. Similarly the large sales tend to drive the price lower imploding returns on the exit. This “slippage” is a significant competitive disadvantage for sizeable funds when getting in or out of an equity position.

Avoid actively-managed funds in your 401K plan that have a huge amount of assets.

Actively-Managed Funds vs. Index Funds

Normally 85% of mid and large cap mutual funds under-perform their associated indexes in any given year. Generally the funds with a large amount of assets offered by most institutional 401K plans are extremely likely to under-perform. This means that most investors are better off looking for an index fund with low expenses in these particular market sectors. Is there any sector where actively managed funds are more likely to outperform their associated index funds? Actively-managed small cap and foreign market mutual funds have a greater chance of beating their associated indexes; some surveys demonstrate that nearly 40 to 50% of these funds outperform the indexes in most years. Similarly many actively-managed bond funds out-perform the standard bond indexes.

What does this means to the average 401K investor; they should look for low-expense index funds in their 401K plan that cover the mid and large cap sectors. However they should consider actively managed funds for the small cap, foreign stock, and bond sectors, especially if the fund expense ratios appear to be reasonable.

Selecting the Funds

So how do we pare down the list of funds in this example to a group that can be used to demonstrate diversification?

First remove all the “Fidelity Freedom” funds from consideration. These funds are targeted at people who want to select a retirement year and simply “set & forget”. Furthermore, these types of funds also tend to have increased fees due to the fact that they are really a mutual fund of other sub-tending funds. Due to the higher fees and “auto-diversification” features these funds will not be used in this analysis.

The next funds to pare out are the actively managed large and mid-cap funds; this drops Fidelity Growth and Income, Fidelity Magellan, Fidelity OTC, and MSI LGCP Rel Val A. This leaves Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSVX) as the obvious large cap selection.

In this case, there is an obvious weakness in the lack of an actively managed mid-cap fund offering or standard index mid-cap offering included in the funds offered in the plan. The weighting of the components included in the BGI Extended Market Index fund make it lean towards representing middle capitalized equities better then the smaller capitalized stocks included in the index. The BGI Extended Market Index fund will be selected to represent mid-caps in this example. The T. ROWE PRICE EXTENDED EQUITY M using symbol PEXMX closely matches the returns of this index, and will be used as a proxy for performance analysis because it has a five year history. All the mutual index funds that match the Wilshire 4500 Completion Index are considered mid-cap blend funds in the Morningstar database.

Remember, it is wise to look for actively managed small stock and foreign stock funds within a 401K plan. If the offered funds in these sectors appear to have strong performance over time with reasonable fees; then they should be considered for inclusion in your 401K portfolio. The obvious small cap choice is Wells Fargo Small Cap Value CL Z (SSMVX). There are three foreign stock funds are offered in this Fidelity plan; Fidelity International Discovery Fund (FIGRX) will be used in this example, but any of the funds could be considered.

In the same way the Fidelity Investment Grade Bond Fund (FBNDX) will represent bonds over using the BGI U.S. Debt Index Fund. Actively-managed bond funds tend to outperform the bond indexes. Knowledgeable bond fund managers can use several active interest rate and bond swapping methods to boost yields; bond index funds are stuck with their structured holdings.

The Final List

The following list of funds will be used in our 401K basic diversification example:
Large Cap: Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSVX)
Mid Cap: BGI Extended Market Index (proxied by symbol PEXMX)
Small Cap: Wells Fargo Small Cap Value CL Z (SSMVX)
Foreign Stock: Fidelity International Discovery Fund (FIGRX)
Bond: Fidelity Investment Grade Bond Fund (FBNDX)
Cash: Fidelity Institutional Money Market (FMPXX)


Type of Investors – Risk Tolerance

Investors need to take into account their risk tolerance when designing their retirement portfolio. My definitions of investor profiles are provided below:

Conservative – Very much dislikes loose money in any given year, willing to accept a lower rate of return for less volatility and risk in their portfolio
Moderate – Willing to accept a 10-15% draw-down in a given year. Expects the long term returns to mirror or slightly exceed the overall market.
Aggressive – Willing to take a 20-30% draw-down without flinching. Hopes their long term returns will exceed the overall market.

Many times an investor will be more tolerant of risk when they are young and find it less acceptable as they approach retirement. This means that their risk profile will go from Aggressive to Conservative over a long period of time. A 401K investor first must determine how much risk they can stomach before proceeding to design a portfolio.

The standard allocation of the portfolio will also vary based on the person’s age. One general rule of thumb for retirement accounts is that:

The % allocation in stocks = 110 minus (your age)
For example if you are 30 years old then 110 – 30 = 80% of your 401K portfolio should be in stocks.

This formula provides an approximation of the stock vs. non-stock investments for investors of a specific age group. The allocation of the stock sectors is driven by both risk tolerance and age.

401K Portfolios by Age and Risk Tolerance

Before proceeding to the outlined 401K portfolios below, please understand that several assumptions are made in regards to these portfolios:

1) The individual will be retiring at age 65 and start withdrawing the money then. Retiring earlier or later then this requires a shift in age-based investment strategy.
2) The money in the 401K plan is not needed for any purpose prior to retirement.
3) The individual is not borrowing against the 401K plan. This creates all sorts of complexities in planning.

Crunching the numbers for the selected funds provide the following portfolio allocation results for investors in different age groups who have varying risk appetites. The results are based on the concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory.

Please note that this is not official investment advice, but simply an exercise to demonstrate how the allocations in a 401K plan will vary for investors of different ages and risk acceptance levels.


401K Portfolio for Ages 20-30







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401K Portfolio for Ages 30-40




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401K Portfolio for Ages 40-50




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401K Portfolio for Ages 50-60





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Where did these magic numbers come from?

The first immediate question from most people is where did all the magic percentages come from for all the proposed portfolios above? These numbers come from running a set of spreadsheets that calculate standard deviation for each mutual fund, followed by covariance, efficient frontier, and other calculations such as Monte-Carlo calculations. Constraints are used to create a portfolio that is appropriate for each particular age group. The moderate portfolio is the middle case; the conservative portfolio looks at safety in the worst “risk-of-ruin” case, while the aggressive portfolio focuses on maximum returns while allowing significant draw downs.

The next question should be “why are all the numbers so nice and round?” Well it is because the results are rounded to the closest 5% mark normally. So 13.84% is rounded to 15% rather then being left as a difficult to remember number. Will this rounding impact your returns over the long term? Yes, but not by much when taking in account the dollar cost averaging used in 401K investing and other factors relating to the mathematics of retirement investing. In other words, you are just slightly off the best theoretical results in terms of yield vs. volatility. Also based on performance results and the time period selected; that number may be 15.1% rather then 13.84% when the calculations are run six months from now. The reality is that the results, within the constraints allowed, converge approximately on the percentage allocation.

Some people will note that the utilization of MPT tends to skew the selected investments towards more volatile small caps and foreign stock funds that have greater risks while many times offering greater returns. This is expected, but leads to results where some investment advisors for middle-age employees may urge them to tilt towards large caps in their stock fund selections in the belief that this will provide greater safety. Modern Portfolio Theory does not actually back up this type of advice, the math leads towards placing greater amounts of money in non-correlated sector investments to provide greater overall returns with less risk. If anything 401K plan participants may want to possibly consider placing greater percentages into non-large cap stock funds as they get older then the tables present.

Also keep in mind that the results are automatically constrained by practical limits in some cases. For example, as an extreme case it is possible for an un-restrained calculation to show that the best investment alternative for a 60 year old was to place 80% of their money in foreign stocks while performing an efficient frontier calculation. Well the results would have to be constrained by the fact that anyone of that age should have approximately 40-50% of their money in bonds. Including this type of boundary constraint leads to more reasonable results.

A good site, from retired math professor Peter Ponzo from the University of Waterloo, for spreadsheets that allow for the number crunching is:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/

The site contains a wealth of information on the number crunching side of investing.
Some spreadsheets of interest will be:
Standard Deviation
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/download-stocks.htm (calculate SD for multiple stocks or funds).
Covariances
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/stock-correlations.htm
CAPM
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/CAPM.htm
Efficient Frontier
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/sampling-Frontier.htm
Monte-Carlo Survival Rate
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Monte_Carlo_2.htm
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/MC-X.htm

There are a number of limitations and errata to this 401K model that will be explored in more detail in later posts. These include but are not limited to:
1) The cash is viewed as a risk less asset, and the allocation is based on traditional retirement advice.
2) It really would be better to break down age in 5 year increments, after all a 50 year old that is 15 years from retirement has very different needs then a 60 year old who is within 5 years of the mark.
3) Different fund selection can lead to different results.
4) Does not take in account increasing salary over time (greater 401K investments over time). Assumes a constant amount every year. The allocations are a static snapshot.
5) Does not take into account variations in company match.
6) Inflation or changing risk less interest rates not taken into account.
7) Some calculations tend to minimize return risk against the S&P 500, in other words the results are correlated against the “market” which is generally represented by the S&P 500 index as a benchmark. This will explain the tendency to lean towards large cap index funds as the person approaches age 60.
8) No consideration given to standard blend funds such as Fidelity Puritan in the fund selection process.
9) and quite a bit of other stuff.

Are the percentages provided in the tables above perfect for all situations? No, however they should serve as a starting point and guideline for people considering how to allocate their 401K investments. The key take-away point is that investors MUST diversify across all the sectors and not place all of their money in merely one or two funds.

Once again, if you need professional investment help for 401K planning then I urge you to see qualified “fee-only” financial advisor. See the following site for more information:

NAPFA, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, is the nation’s leading organization dedicated to the advancement of Fee-Only comprehensive financial planning.
http://www.napfa.org/

As a disclosure let me state that I do invest my 401K money in some funds not included in this example. Therefore my personal 401K portfolio does not exactly match any of the portfolios provided above. However all the funds used in the example above are part of my 401K fund selections.

Re-Balancing

Why do investors need to re-balance? After a while a 401K investors percentages allocated to each investment will be out of proportion as some funds increase in value quicker then others. This means that the investor will have to re-balance their investments to the target percentages to get back to being in equilibrium.

Some people may ask “is re-balancing sort of like backing your return losers and punishing the funds that excelled”? Well not exactly because the fund that excelled last year may be the dog this coming year. Leading sectors tend to rotate every year. Studies have also shown that adding assets to a portfolio component during a period when they underperformed actually results in higher returns and lower risk over time. This is especially true for 401K plans which automatically implement dollar cost averaging, an excellent form of time diversification.

How often should a 401K investor re-balance? Investors should review their 401K performance each quarter but only need to rebalance about once per year. I normally re-balance in January each year. Some studies have shown that the optimal re-balancing period is 17 months; of course there is the usual academic debate over this selection of timeframe.

Extremely Aggressive Investors and that guy who failed to Diversify

Some 401K plans offer options to invest money in stocks and funds outside the basic fund plan. Many very aggressive investors use this as an opportunity to implement swing trading in their 401K account. Many of these individuals have some success; however most do not beat the market in the long term. 80% or more lose retirement savings doing this. Nearly all would be better off investing with a long term perspective. If you want to trade stocks, I would urge you to open a brokerage account outside of your 401K for this activity; focus your retirement accounts strictly on long term investing.

If you are going to utilize the option to purchase investments outside your core 401K plan then you need to be doing it for the right reason --- broader diversification for your long term investments. For example with Fidelity, the brokerage-link option will allow you access to REIT, commodity, and high-yield funds. If you are a knowledgeable investor then it makes sense to put a small allocation of your retirement savings into these types of offerings.

Another possible reason to select funds outside your core plan is to fill in a missing sector gap or selection of a fund with a lower expense ratio. This should be done with a long term picture in mind; chasing returns by rotating in and out of funds is not advisable.

Also keep in mind the importance of diversification. The individual in the next cube bragging this year about their 34% return who placed all their 401K money in foreign stocks, is the same person that will be crying next year that they lost 50% of the money in their 401K. The cause of their emotional rollercoaster is the failure to properly diversify and seek risk adjusted returns over the long run. Retirement investing is won by the turtle, not the rabbits.

Today’s Heresy

This discussion did not touch on value vs. growth vs. blend funds in context of creating a basic 401K portfolio, I may be so bold to state that within the framework of selecting rudimentary funds to provide simple diversity – the fund style (growth, value, and blend) does not matter. There may be some people who view this as heresy; however my perspective is that in an environment in which many of the fund selections are indexes or actively-managed funds that attempt to beat basic indexes then it is not worth time to obsess over value vs. growth. Most 401K investors would do best to ignore these fund style concerns when creating a basic portfolio of mutual funds included in their core plan. If multiple options must be selected from within a particular sector then the employee would do best to select a “blend” type of fund, or balance between growth and value selections.

Summary

The merits of the selected funds from the overall list in this example can be debated. However the focus of this summary is the proper creation of a diversified 401K portfolio that will increase long term returns while minimizing risk. The concepts remain the same no matter which company you work for and what particular funds you select -- it is critical to diversify your 401K selections across all the basic sectors.

A future posting will take a closer look at the returns of some of the proposed 401K portfolios, taking a look at the mechanics of standard deviation and risk.

Others may quibble over the benefits of indexing versus active-managed funds. There are a number of opinions in this area. Generally I have found that it is difficult for actively managed U.S. large caps funds to beat the S&P500 index; especially since the funds offered in most 401K plans that have a huge amount of assets. Historically most mid-cap funds do not beat their associated indexes either. There are a few standout mid-cap funds; if your 401K plan is fortunate enough to include one of these actively-managed mid-cap funds with a history of beating the index then you may want to consider the fund as an alternative to mid-cap indexing.

The focus of this summary is to define the important benefits of fund diversification within your 401K plan characterized in the context of modern portfolio theory. While the mathematical theory may be complex, the conceptual outcome is not. The results demonstrate that a 401K investor should focus on proper diversification across basic sectors offered in their core funds to achieve the best long term results with their retirement savings. The portfolio ratios may change due to age or risk tolerance, but the prerequisite to win in the long term remains the same – Diversification is critical to funding your retirement success.




Some further links on portfolio diversification:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp

http://money.aol.com/investing/fct1/_a/asset-allocationportfolio/20050225133309990006